Thomas Corporation is considering a new project that has Base Case projections for the sale of 4,200 golf clubs. For each club sold, the company will generate $82 in net cash flow. This particular model of club is expected to last for seven years and will cost $1.4 Million to launch. McIlroy has pegged a required return of 12% for the new line.
The company’s CEO Mike recognizes that there is a chance the line of clubs will be even more popular than projected in the Base Case. But Mike also knows that there is a chance the clubs will fail in the ever-changing marketplace. If the company decides to shut down the operation after one year, it can sell off the assets for a net inflow of $900,000. If the project is a success, Mike is projecting annual unit sales can be revised up to 6,800 units after the first year; if the project tanks in its first year out, Mike feels sales would be revised down to 1,000 units per year and that the project would be abandoned.
If Mike Thomas thinks there’s a 50/50 chance of the two changes, what is the Net Present Value of the project? (round to the nearest dollar)